Business economists in the United States now forecast slower economic growth this year as a result of the widespread delta strain of the coronavirus, but they also believe the economy will revive more swiftly next year as immunizations become more widely available.
The National Association of Business Economists found in a study issued Monday that its panel now predicts full-year economic growth of 5.6 percent, down from a projection of 6.7 percent growth in NABE’s previous survey in May.
However, experts increased their prediction for 2022 GDP growth to 3.5 percent from 2.8 percent previously.
The findings of the NABE are based on answers from 47 forecasters earlier this month.
According to the panelists, inflation will stay high into the fourth quarter before declining next year. This year, consumers have faced dramatically higher pricing for products and services as businesses struggle with an extraordinary increase in wholesale prices.
While the NABE survey currently predicts 5.1 percent year-over-year inflation this year, experts appear to anticipate the higher prices will be primarily temporary. Inflation is predicted to drop to 2.4 percent next year.
According to NABE, the coronavirus remains the key determinant influencing how the US economy will perform for the rest of the year and into 2022. A potential vaccine-resistant variant of the coronavirus is viewed as the greatest threat to the economy by around two-thirds of those polled.
A speedier introduction of vaccines, on the other hand, would bring the greatest boost to the economy this year and next, according to about half of the panelists.
The panelists at NABE were divided on the question of a potential labor shortage. Approximately 44% of panelists stated that their companies were not experiencing any labor shortages or challenges, while 35% stated that they were facing a labor shortage.
One out of every five panelists did not know or was unsure.